Thursday, April 30, 2009

Resorts World at Sentosa to seek new agency

SINGAPORE - Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS) is to launch a search for a creative agency after parting ways with TBWA yesterday.

"Resorts World at Sentosa is on track for its opening early next year, and will be exploring options for its next creative agency,” said Robin Goh, assistant vice president, communications, Resorts World at Sentosa.

Other sources have suggested that “several” agencies have already held talks with the client, while one argued that a pitch consultant could be brought in to invite agencies to pitch in time.

TBWA Singapore resigned the RWS creative business after two years, citing "creative and strategic differences".

Angela Lam, head of marketing at Resorts World at Sentosa, said: “Both companies have decided that this would be the best move at this point in time.”

Source

Traders bet on Wall Street rising


Hang Seng's surge, 60-point bounce in Dow Jones Industrial Average June futures push STI up 41 points

IF INDICES in this part of the world should rise sharply, it's a fair bet that it was because traders are betting heavily on Wall Street rising just as sharply later the same day. Such was the case yesterday when fears of Mexican swine flu, which had dragged the Straits Times Index down some 45 points on Monday and Tuesday, were suddenly banished, thanks to a 2.7 per cent rise in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and a 60-point bounce in the June futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The outcome was a 41.16-point rise in the STI to 1,849.57, with some amount of short-covering no doubt playing a part.

The bulk of brokers' reports dealt with the possible consequences on markets if the swine flu threat was to rise beyond present, relatively benign levels.

In a Hong Kong Economics report on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley said that it thinks the negative impact on the economy will be smaller than that experienced during the 2003 Sars outbreak. 'The biggest blow during Sars was the collapse of in-bound tourism, which will unlikely be the case this time round as Hong Kong/China is not the source of the outbreak,' said MS. It also said that Hong Kong today is different from 2003 because the relevant authorities are better prepared for epidemic disease outbreaks.

Airline stocks have understandably come under pressure this week, although Singapore Airlines yesterday rebounded 16 cents to $10.30 with 2.7 million traded.

In assessing the impact of the swine flu on SIA, DBS Vickers said in a Tuesday note that it does not expect a major impact on the airline's business yet, because SIA does not fly to Mexico and flies to only a few US cities.

'Of greater importance is a recovery in demand and thus load factors, which can help the stock re-rate . . . Maintain 'hold' with $11.30 target price. The earnings outlook for the next two quarters remains weak and we would advise buying only if 1) load factors start to improve or 2) the shares drop below $9 per share,' said DBSV.

Elsewhere, Chartered Semiconductor was the day's most active stock, rising 1.5 cents to 16.5 cents on volume of 84.4 million. Goldman Sachs yesterday released a 'sell' on the counter, saying that because the stock has doubled in the past month and is now trading at 0.6 times 2009 estimated book, it is overvalued. Among other reasons, GS also based its call on Chartered not having had positive annual cash flow since inception and the likelihood that it will need further financing in 2009-10 to supplement a recently-completed rights issue.

Meanwhile, Credit Suisse (CS) joined the ranks of investment houses such as Nomura, UBS Investment Research and Citi Investment Research in recommending an 'overweight' on the local market.

In a April 28 Strategy report, CS said it believes that the local market may have bottomed and could gain 20-48 per cent from current levels. It said it is 'overweighting' banks and financials while 'underweighting' telecoms and property.

In a April 24 Global Economics Weekly report, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said that the current bounce on Wall St is at best, 'the famed reflexive rebound that occurs between down-legs of a secular bear market'.

It added that economic support for the rally has been dubious so far and pointed out that although bull markets may start out being driven by technicals like sentiment and market positioning, they have to be driven by economic fundamentals to be sustained.

Shares close up 2.28%

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 2.28 per cent higher on Wednesday, boosted by strong performances in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index closed 41.16 points higher at 1,849.57 on volume of 1.52 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$777 million).

Gainers led losers 373 to 116, with 761 issues unchanged.

'We are basically following the region,' said a trader at bank-backed brokerage.

'The initial reaction by the market to the swine flu outbreak was probably overdone.'

Hong Kong share prices closed 2.76 per cent higher on Wednesday, while China shares climbed 2.78 per cent.

Banking shares closed higher. DBS advanced 11 cents to $9.10, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp climbed 12 cents to $5.48 and United Overseas Bank edged up six cents to $11.00.

Among property shares, CapitaLand rose 13 cents to $2.56, City Developments gained 14 cents to $5.82 while Keppel Land was unchanged at $1.67.

Singapore Airlines gained 16 cents to $10.30 and Singapore Telecommunications rose eight cents to $2.54.

Investment holding company Sembcorp Industries was up nine cents to $2.65 and motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage climbed 34 cents to $13.26.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

猪流感可能打击马国赌场

(吉隆坡讯)猪流感来袭,旅游业首当其冲,分析员认为尽管整体展望负面,但实际影响仍视疫情扩散程度和长度,2009至2011财政年盈利预测和评级暂时保持不变。  

联昌研究表示,致命病毒将对旅游和相关服务行业带来沉重打击,而赌场次领域更直接受害,主要是民众将削减旅游次数,以及减少曝露于公开场合等方式降低感染机率。  

“对名胜世界(RESORTS)而言,这意味着云顶度假村和赌场旅客人数减少,但鉴于国内旅客为其主要客源,相信政府加强旅客检疫动作将不会对业务造成重大威胁,而云顶(GENTING)则因持有云顶国际和名胜世界股权而间接受创。”  

截至2008财政年,云顶72%旅客为当天往返的短途旅客,其余28%为酒店房客,其中54%为当地人,22%新加坡旅客以及中国/香港22%和其他15%。  

另外,阿马研究则认为,尽管整体展望负面,但对旅游和相关服务领域实际影响仍胥视疫情扩散程度和周期。  

根据历史趋势,疫情爆发对博彩业者影响程度参差,但毫无疑问将对博彩相关类股信心带来负面冲击,其中名胜世界和云顶股价在2003年沙斯爆发初期,分别从高位下滑29%和23%,但随疫情在下半年趋缓,双方股价则从低位飙升60%和67%。

Source

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

名胜世界或购海外博彩资产 手持庞大现金·财务稳固

手持45亿令吉净现金在手的名胜世界(Resorts,4715,主板贸服股),企在非常舒适的财务状况,使之在收购海外博彩资产上拥有更好的地位。

受到美国疲弱经济所影响,美国及澳门的多家博彩公司也处在危险财务的边缘,加上澳门的签证限制,估计在未来的6至12个月内,全球的博彩领域会掀起并购浪潮。

有鉴于目前一些博彩资产价值低于一般水平,预见名胜世界将趁机利用手上45亿令吉的充裕现金,来加强其稳健的博彩资产。

在美国及亚洲(尤其是澳门),一些博彩公司在过去18个月来是在低估值下交易;而在欧洲,反而是线上或网络博彩已开出另一条生路,法国及德国有可能会合法化网络博彩活动。在这些博彩公司面对财务危机之际,进而为名胜世界提供了并购的机会,包括了波伊德博彩(Boyd aming)、驿站集团(Station Casino),以及热带娱乐公司(Tropicana Entertainment)。

承接债务数量是关键

另外较引人瞩目的是澳门的银河娱乐(Galaxy Entertainment)以及新濠博亚博彩(Melco Crown)这两个主要特许经营公司,名胜世界仅需80%以下的现有现金,就能够收购其中一家。

然而,若名胜世界决定要采取全面收购的方式,该公司将必须自身承接剩余债务的能力,而关键也在于名胜世界愿意承接被收购者的多少债务。

另一方面,虽然预见名胜世界于新加坡的度假村在2010年投入运作后,将面临另一度假村强劲的挑战而仅取得100万的新加坡顾客,但相信在具吸引力的房间收费率及演唱会的带动下,2011年的顾客数量将有所恢复。有鉴于看好名胜世界收益将维持稳健,分析员也给予名胜世界“买入”评级,并将目标价格上调至3.10令吉。

Source

Monday, April 27, 2009

Shares close 1.8% lower

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares fell 1.85 per cent on Monday on fears over the economic impact of a deadly swine flu outbreak, analysts said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 34.24 points down at 1,818.61, led by Singapore Airlines on concerns that air travel will take a further hit from the new health threat.

Volume was 1.77 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$774 million). Losers outnumbered gainers 427 to 125, with 700 issues unchanged.

The STI's decline was in line with other regional bourses, as fears of a worldwide swine flu outbreak dragged markets down.

'We expect uncertainty to hit the markets this week on growing concerns of the swine flu spreading and that a possible cure for this is not yet certain,' said NetResearch Asia.

'Much like SARS did in 2003, this would deal another blow to the travel and leisure industry.' Singapore Airlines dived 48 cents to $10.12 and Singapore Telecommunications eased two cents to $2.47.

Banking shares closed lower. DBS and United Overseas Bank eased six cents apiece to $8.98 and $11.12 respectively, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp shed 12 cents to $5.31.

Among property shares, CapitaLand fell 12 cents to $2.47, City Developments retreated 16 cents to $5.67 and Keppel Land slid five cents to $1.71.

Motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage fell 40 cents to $12.66 while agricultural products supplier Olam International rose five cents to $1.68.

亚太股市大多下跌 猪流感疫情令投资者谨慎行事

亚洲股市大多走低,美国和墨西哥爆发的猪流感疫情令投资者谨慎行事,旅游类和航空类股遭受重创,但制药类股走强。香港股市收跌2.7%。

东京股市收盘微幅走高,受大型银行股上涨提振。但由于爆发猪流感疫情的消息导致美元走软,并引发投资者担心美国股市可能对这一消息作出负面反应,东京股市回吐了早盘时的大部分涨幅。日经225指数收盘涨18.35点,至8726.34点,涨幅0.2%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨3.05点,至833.10点,涨幅0.4%。市场成交量温和,约为20亿股。大阪证券交易所,六月日经225指数期货收盘涨10点,至8750点,涨幅0.1%。

航空和酒店类股大幅下跌拖累香港股市收盘走低,墨西哥、美国和加拿大猪流感疫情的爆发引发了国际旅游业可能大幅下滑的担忧。中资银行股也走低,因在美国运通(American Express)和安联保险(Allianz)合计持有的2.3%的中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 简称:工商银行)股份中,有一半即将解除锁定。恒生指数跌418.43点,至14,840.42点,跌幅2.7%,盘中低点14,798.90点。成交额总计530.1亿港元,高于上周五的517.3亿港元。

中国股市连续第二个交易日走低。受猪流感疫情引发的担忧拖累,猪肉供应商和航空类股下挫。基准上证综合指数收盘下跌1.8%,至2405.35点,上周五跌0.6%。深证综合指数跌3.2%,至794.95点。

澳大利亚股市小幅走高,全天走势振荡。墨西哥爆发猪流感疫情在全球股市引起紧张情绪。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘涨19.3点,至3731.6点,涨幅0.5%,市场交投淡静。股指早盘曾一度升至五个交易日高点3780.8点,之后又回落至3680.6点低点。

新加坡股市收盘走低,受到猪流感疫情可能在全球蔓延的担忧拖累。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌34.24点,至1818.61点,跌幅1.8%。下跌股以427比125领先上涨股。成交量为18亿股,高于上周五的14亿股。

旅游业惊弓之鸟 云顶名胜世界一起跌

2009/04/27 17:54:51
●南洋商报

在市场预见猪流感的爆发将打击旅游业,并导致旗下博彩及酒店的业务放缓,云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)今日股价受挫,写下5个月来最大跌幅。

云顶今日共下滑了0.28令吉或5.74%,以4.60令吉的价位挂收;子公司名胜世界(Resorts,4715,主板贸服股)亦难逃一劫,闭市时报2.39令吉,下挫0.15令吉或5.91%。

达证券分析员詹姆斯拉特南解释:“只要爆发任何疫病,这些股项皆会受到影响,现在只是投资情绪的问题,毕竟目前还没有任何新闻报导亚洲区域也受到猪流感的侵袭。”

原棕油价格大挫4.3% 另一方面,由于墨西哥在受感染的情况下将减低肉类及谷类的需求,进而影响总是跟随谷类市场波动的植物油价格,大马原棕油价格今日大挫4.3%。

7月份原棕油期货在开始后的几分钟便大跌了110令吉,至每公吨2475令吉的水平。

Source

Friday, April 24, 2009

Still no dividend payout for Genting shareholders

SINGAPORE: If you own Genting International shares, don't bet on receiving dividends anytime soon. It has been almost 20 years since the casino operator last rewarded its shareholders with a dividend payout. And its board of directors warned on Friday that shareholders may have to wait at least a few more years.

At Genting's annual general meeting, several shareholders asked the board when they would finally receive a dividend payout. The answer was "at least five years from now".

Managing director Justin Tan said the company's finances would likely remain stretched for the first few years after the opening of its Resorts World integrated resort on Sentosa in 2010. This is because the firm has to repay almost S$1 billion in loan each year over the next five years.

This is for a loan of almost S$4.2 billion that Genting had obtained from over 20 banks early last year to fund the building of the integrated resort. But once the company has stabilised its gearing, Mr Tan said, it would definitely reward its shareholders.

This answer was good enough for at least one shareholder, who declined to be named.

The shareholder said: "Dividends are important, but until and unless the company has established itself and there is some balance in the company, then it can start paying slowly, stage by stage, in order to keep the shareholders happy, if the company does make money. If it doesn't make money, you have to bear with it for a little while."

Genting's board said it is confident that Resorts World Sentosa will be completed within budget, as labour and material costs have stabilised.

As such, the firm has no plans to launch a rights issue to raise more funds. The board added that the integrated resort is on track for its soft opening in the first quarter of 2010. On day one, four of the six planned hotels at the resort should be ready, as well as a Universal Studios theme park and the casino.

Genting's CEO Lim Kok Thay said he is confident that Resorts World will be able to reach its target of seven to eight million visitors in its first year, and 10 million annually thereafter.

Source

Resorts World family fun rooms

[top photo: A room in Festive Hotel. The family-friendly hotel has designed most of its room with loft beds for children, while parents will have separate sleeping chambers.]

A room in the Maxims Tower.

When Resorts World at Sentosa opens next year, young visitors can crash out in their own loft beds after a day at the Universal Studios theme park.

The family-friendly Festive Hotel has designed most of its 390 rooms with loft beds. Parents have separate sleeping chambers.

For the kids, this means climbing a ladder to their private space for the night. Each loft bed can sleep two children.

Mr Patrick Burke, 51, principal architect at American firm Michael Graves & Associates, which is the architect for the Resorts World, gave the media a sneak preview of the rooms in three hotels at Resorts World yesterday.

The other two hotels are Maxims Tower and Hotel Michael. He said: 'The Festive Hotel is about having fun, and loft beds allow families with kids to share the same room.''

The $6.59-billion casino development is the firm's first project in Singapore. It is also doing the interiors for five of the six hotels on the site.

The three hotels which had the media preview yesterday and Hard Rock Hotel Singapore, which has its own team of designers, are scheduled to open in the first quarter of next year. They will account for about 1,350 hotel rooms out of the 1,800 rooms at the resort. Two other hotels will open later.

Mr Burke, who designed the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Hotels in Florida and Hotel New York at EuroDisneyland Paris, says the perfect hotel room is one that is 'warm and inviting and makes the visitor feel at home'.

But he throws in little surprises to cater to the needs of target guests.

For example, the loft beds and bright colours in the Festive Hotel make it fun for youngsters.
The 120-room Maxims Tower, aimed at high rollers, is furnished with deep woods and rich colours such as red and gold. The bathrooms come with a personal steam room.

The Hotel Michael, which has 470 rooms, is named after the famous American architect Michael Graves. All the rooms will come with a circular shower decorated with blue mosaic tiles, a replica of his personal shower room.

Resorts World at Sentosa says room rates will be announced at a later date.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

STI closes up 0.9%

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 0.90 per cent higher on Thursday as investors picked up bargains following recent declines, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index added 16.57 points to end at 1,859.98 on volume of 1.55 billion shares worth $1.25 billion (US$831 million).

Gainers led losers 251 to 198, with 792 issues unchanged.

'It seems as though the correction in the last few days has been enough to get some bargain-hunting underway again,' said a trader at a local brokerage.

Banking shares were mixed. DBS eased two cents to $9.03 while Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gained seven cents to $5.56 and United Overseas Bank closed 12 cents higher at $11.20.

Among property shares, CapitaLand fell five cents to $2.65 while City Developments climbed seven cents to $5.83 and Keppel Land rose 12 cents to $1.88.

Singapore Airlines advanced 22 cents to $10.82 while Singapore Telecommunications remained at $2.47.

Agribusiness group Wilmar International gained 18 cents to $3.61 and beverage maker Fraser and Neave edged up a cent to $2.60.

亚太股市周四多数上涨

亚太股市周四多数收高,汽车股在东京股市领涨。中国股市午盘后自低位反弹,并带动香港股市收复前一日的部分失地。

东京股市周四走高,汽车类股领涨,因为在高盛(Goldman Sachs)将汽车类股评级上调至具有吸引力的级别之后,市场预期全球汽车销售将有所回暖。日经225指数涨119.71点,至8847.01点,涨幅1.4%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨9.54点,至839.50点,涨幅1.2%。大阪证券交易所,六月日经225指数期货收盘涨80点,至8830点,涨幅0.9%。

香港股市走高,汇丰控股(HSBC)领涨,受投资者对金融类股的逢低买盘以及中国大陆股市的涨势提振。恒生指数收盘涨336.01点,至15,214.46点,涨幅2.3%,股指本交易日早些时候一度升至15,222.20点的高位。中国股市收盘小幅走高,因投资者逢低吸纳金属和煤炭类股,但是围绕企业业绩的担忧限制了股指涨幅。基准的上证综合指数收盘上涨0.1%,至2463.95点,盘中低点为2422.79点。深证综合指数上涨0.7%,至825.22点。

澳大利亚股市涨至三日高点,受指数基金买盘、消费必需品行业的并购活动以及瑞信(Credit Suisse)好于预期的业绩等诸多因素推动。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘上涨74.8点,至3743.0点,涨幅2.0%;盘中一度触及3745.4点。成交量放大。此前,股指自上周五触及3851.2点的五个月新高后,已连续三个交易日走低。今日的上扬扭转了市场的颓势。

新加坡股市走高,受股市近期下跌之后出现的一些逢低买盘推动,但分析师们表示,市场短期内将维持振荡。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘涨16.57点,至1859.98点,涨幅0.9%。大盘251至股票上涨,198只股票下跌。成交量为16亿股,低于周三的17亿股。

Genting Int 23 April 2009 - Can break 0.63-0.64 ??




Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Star Cruises shares surge 65 percent

Star Cruises Ltd (麗星郵輪), Asia’s biggest cruise operator, surged by a record 65 percent in Hong Kong trading after China said it would allow cruise tours to Taiwan to stop in the city.

Star Cruises rose as much as HK$0.53 to HK$1.35, the most since being listed in Hong Kong in 2000, and traded at HK$1.18 as of 2:35pm.That boosted the stock’s gains for this year to 97 percent, compared with a 10 percent climb for the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

After his meeting with Chinese authorities, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) said on Saturday in a press briefing at the Boao forum in Hainan that China would allow cruise tours from mainland ports to stop at Hong Kong en route to Taiwan.

Star Cruises said in November it plans to begin a service between Taiwan and China by the end of the first quarter of this year.

ON THE UP

The Singapore-traded shares of Star Cruises rose 26 percent, the most in two years.The cruise operator isn’t aware of the reasons for the increases in price and trading volume, it said in statements to the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges yesterday.

Calls to the Hong Kong-based office of Star Cruises weren’t immediately returned.

RESTRICTIONS RELAXEDHong Kong will relax travel restrictions for Taiwanese visitors entering the city, the city’s government said in a statement on April 15.

Taiwanese residents with a valid travel permit for China will be allowed to stay in Hong Kong for seven days.Taiwan, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Fujian should form a regional economic alliance to improve their competitiveness, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) said last week after meeting in Hong Kong with Stephen Lam (林瑞麟), the city’s secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs.Taiwan plans to start talks with China on cross-strait economic cooperation at the end of this year, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chao Chien-min (趙建民) said last week.

Source

Genting Int

Monday, April 20, 2009

劉兆祥: 知悉麗星(0678.HK)可星港套戥能免炒錯市

信誠證券投資部經理劉兆祥表示,今天港股先跌後升,最終是向上升穿還是跌穿上升通道的支持線,要多看一段時間,但在現時仍然以不變應萬變的心態,即靜侯突破位出現才跟隨趨勢而行。值得留意,這種完美的通道,未突破前千萬不要逆勢而行,當然是否跟隨向上,便要看投資者的膽量。

倫敦(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)匯控(0005.HK)(0005.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)似乎要跌穿上升軌,如果上升軌失守,加上近日英鎊轉弱,便有可能跌回50元水平。至於市場經常出現不理性活動,正如今早筆者所言,中央挽救,個別股份可以受惠,但要小心當中一隻是麗星郵輪(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)(0678.HK)(0678.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料),股價開市即炒高,最多更升至$1.35,但隨後大幅回落。

如果炒開這隻股份的投資者到清楚,這隻股票在香港及新加坡(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)上市,因此投資者可以進行套戥活動,而且過去一段時間,都是新加坡股份高於香港超過$0.10,而今天新加坡股份並沒有上升,但香港竟然升至$1.30,較新加坡高出$0.40,自然有大量套戥者加入沽貨行列,使股價回落。

到中段時,新加坡股份才接力向上,但以收市計,香港股份仍高於新加坡$0.10,如果明白這個關係,今天便不會炒錯市。 這個世界往往是一物治一物,例如被小股東痛罵的電盈(0008.HK)(0008.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)主席李先生,卻千不該,萬不該,竟然找到這些律師代表上庭,看到這個律師的表現,真的大嘆難道香港沒有人才嗎?筆者作為電盈的股東,深信私有化的理據在電盈那邊(撤除是否有一致行動的情況),因此一定成功,竟然出現上訴情況,已經大跌眼鏡(因為這些律師提出的理據不能服人),而且隨時輸掉這場官司,就算能贏,仍然面對終審法院(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片),如果李先生能聘請清洪作為律師(一定不可能,因為他是英皇的御用律師),一定在第一堂已經控制大局,贏得極精彩,怎會到目前仍未分勝負呢?

其實今次事件,正好反映監管機構沒有監管中央結算,使中央結算在代客投票前,沒有盡代理的本份,只為客戶投票而沒有計算人頭數量,才是今次問題的所在。

Source

丽星邮轮(0678.HK)高涨42.7%;但股价涨势看来过度

香港时间1502(道琼斯)--丽星邮轮(0678.HK)高涨42.7%至1.17港元,成交额猛增至2,090万港元,而上周五成交量只有1,000股,原因是香港媒体报导,中国将推出进一步支持性措施帮助香港。措施包括,容许内地旅游团乘坐以香港为母港的邮轮,前往台湾旅游。不过股价涨势看来过度,盘中高位1.35港元不太可能再度企及,因为暂时还缺乏具体的实施细节;难以评估影响,《英文虎报》估计,新计划每年可为香港带来额外1亿港元的收入,丽星邮轮可获利多少目前可能难以估算,但股价似乎远远跑在了基本面的前面。交易屏幕上,沽售指令远超过买入指令,表明更多投资者把股价上涨看作是平仓机会而不是追高。

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Sunday, April 19, 2009

GENTING: Resorts World Sentosa to contribute from 2010




THE GENTING GROUP will be the biggest winner and we reiterate our Buy recommendation - so said Merrill Lynch last week in a report evaluating how different sectors stand to gain with the opening of the integrated resorts.
However, FY09 may be the third year in a row that SGX-listed Genting International loses money. This will change when its integrated resort opens in Sentosa next year.
The broker believes the integrated resort will start contributing to Genting’s revenues in 2H10, turning around pretax loss of S$148.5 million in FY08 as well as expected losses this year.
With operations in Australia, USA, Malaysia, the Philippines and UK, the leading integrated resort developer has lost one cent per share in FY08 and 5 cents in FY07.Merrill Lynch's and other brokers’ consensus on Bloomberg is that Genting International will lose another 2.5 cents per share for FY09 before making half a cent per share for FY10.
Resort World @ Sentosa’s much-hyped amenities are a casino, four hotels and a 7,300-seat ballroom, as well as the first Universal Studio theme park in Southeast Asia will soft launch in the first quarter of next year.
The movie theme park will transport visitors into 6 unique movie settings and simulate experiences of movie protagonists.But be it Resorts World @ Sentosa or Marina Bay Sands, whoever opens doors first will claim first mover advantage.
After all, some gamblers may not visit both casinos, deterred by the prospect of paying entrance fees twice.Merrill Lynch estimates the gaming market in 2010 to be about S$3-4 billion.
Based on this, it projects the integrated resort’s total earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA) will reach S$720 million by 2011, of which gaming will contribute 85-90%.
The integrated resorts are expected to increase tourist arrivals to Singapore by 25% from a forecasted 9 million visitors in 2009.Of this, Genting expects Universal Studios to attract about 5 million visitors a year, comprising of a 60:40 foreigner to local ratio.
These estimates appear conservative, considering that Hong Kong’s Disneyland has consistently achieved 4 to 5 million visitors a year since opening in 2005. Genting International’s stock price last closed at 61 cents per share on Friday.


Source

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Is SGX price surge overdone?

THE stock market, they say, is driven by hope, greed and fear.

In simple terms, greed led investors to push stock prices to dizzying heights some two years back, while fear drove investors out as the economy headed south.

And judging by the recent stock market rally, hope appears to be creeping back into the system.
Anecdotally, there is evidence that investors starved for some stock market action have been nibbling away.

This has benefited the stock of Singapore Exchange (SGX) as some investors went on a buying spree in the hope that the market could have bottomed.

Within a short span of three months, the stock has recovered some 25 per cent in price and has even outperformed the Straits Times Index.

But should investors be hopeful? Several analysts have noted in their comments on SGX's Q3 earnings that the speed of the stock's recovery was not justified.

The exchange reported a 45.5 per cent dive in quarterly net profit to $55.3 million from $101.5 million a year ago.

Though the earnings broadly met expectations, there were surprises in the derivatives trading segment, as net derivatives clearing revenue dropped 20 per cent to $31.2 million.

This suggests that SGX's derivatives trading - seen as the means to offset the slump in securities revenue - may not have been as strong as earlier touted.

'As the derivatives engine sputtered, SGX's earnings stream is not looking as robust anymore,' said CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng, who downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform'. 'Time to take money off the table,' he said in a client note.

'On a more structural note, we wonder if the blow-up over the S-chip asset class means that listing pipelines and turnover velocities for SGX will be hampered in the years ahead, making HKSE (Hong Kong stock exchange) the preferred exchange,' he added.

Many have also hesitated to call a bottom, despite the improved average daily trading value seen in April. It now hovers around $1 billion, as compared with $910 million in Q3.

OCBC analyst Carmen Lee noted yesterday that it was too early to call for a recovery. 'While some indicators have shown signs of bottoming-out, our view remains that a sustained economic recovery is necessary for confidence to return to the market.'

While some see the GDP figures of Q1 as indicating that the economy has hit the floor, analysts have cautioned that other factors such as consumer spending would determine a turnaround.
And as unemployment is set to rise, spending will be crimped, indicating a potential fall in investor interest over the next few quarters as pent-up demand pushing the markets up now fades away.

As Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee puts it, there has been 'an overdose of optimism'. 'SGX's sharp price rally . . . and premium valuations to its peers look overdone,' she said in a report yesterday.
So take a swig from your cup and call it half-empty. This burst of hope that shares of SGX are riding on could pop soon.

三重底的研判与投资技巧

三重底。三重底既是头肩底的变异形态,也是W形底的复合形态,三重底相对于W形底和头肩底而言比较少见,却又是比后两者更加坚实的底部形态,而且形态形成后的上攻力度也更强。其形态的成立必须等待有效向上突破颈线位时才能最终确认。因为,三重底突破颈线位后的理论涨幅,将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以,投资者即使在形态确立后介入,仍有较大的获利空间。
  
三重底的研判技巧:
  
在三重底的研判过程中最值得注意的要点是:三重底不是依据有三个低点就能形成的,三针探底的形态只能表示股价的走势图形具有三重底的雏形,未来发展极有可能向三重底演化,至于最终是否能构筑成三重底,并形成一轮上升行情,还需要进一步的检验。三重底成立的确认标准是:
  
1、三重底形态的三次低点时间,通常至少要保持在10~15个交易日以上,如果时间间隔过小,往往说明行情只是处于震荡整理中,底部形态的构筑基础不牢固,即使形成了三重底,由于其形态过小,后市上攻力度也会有限。而近期的三重底的第一和第二低点之间间隔9天,第二和第三低点之间间隔11天,只是勉强符合标准。
  
2、三重底的三次上攻行情中,成交量要呈现出逐次放大的势态,否则极有可能反弹失败。如果大盘在构筑前面的双底形态时,在期间的两次上升行情中,成交量始终不能有效放大的话,将极有可能导致三重底形态的构筑失败。
  
3、在三重底的最后一次的上攻行情中,如果没有增量资金积极介入的放量,仍然会功败垂成。所以,三重底的最后一次上涨必须轻松向上穿越颈线位时才能最终确认。股价必须带量突破颈线位,才能有望展开新一轮升势。
  
投资者在实际操作中不能仅仅看到有三次探底动作,或者已经从表面上形成了三重底,就一厢情愿的认定是三重底而盲目买入,这是非常危险的。因为,有时即使在走势上完成了形态的构造,但如果不能最终放量突破其颈线位的话,三重底仍有功败垂成的可能。三重底由于构筑时间长,底部较为坚实。因此,突破颈线位后的理论涨幅,将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以,投资者需要耐心等待三重底形态彻底构筑完成,股价成功突破颈线位之后,才是最佳的建仓时机。大可不必在仅有三个低点和形态还没有定型时过早介入,虽然有可能获取更多地利润,但从风险收益比率方面计算,反而得不偿失。