海指昨微跌4点 指数股成交量渐缩

由于美国隔夜发布的房屋数据疲弱，而各地央行开始缩减刺激经济配套的规模，引起投资者担忧经济复苏势头会否减弱，本地股市昨日微跌0.2％。

德意志摩根建富证券高级交易主管叶忠英认为，自3月股价回升至今，市场一直没有出现像样的调整。一场介于8％和10％的健康调整是投资者正在期待的，投资者接下来应该采取趁跌吸购的策略。

费利社证券研究认为，目前市场似乎出现大户正调整交易策略的迹象，这是基于主要指数股的成交量日益萎缩，而根据基本投资规律，这是跌市的先兆。

海峡时报指数闭市报2662.82点，跌4.61点。全日股价升多跌少，上升股309只，下跌股218只，而没有变动的有812只。全场成交量大增至34亿4822万股，总值却减至16亿9968万元。

指数股方面，报业控股起2分到3.74元。星展集团研究预测它在下个月12日发布的全年业绩中会增派股息，因此给予它“买入”评级，把它的目标价定在4.21元。

云顶新加坡跌4分到1.12元。法国巴黎银行看好它明年初开业的圣淘沙名胜世界的营运情况，给予它“买入”评级，把它的目标价定在1.35元。

香港置地大涨24美分到4.38美元。麦格理研究指香港的办公楼需求正在增加中，因此给予它“表现优于大市”评级，把它的目标价提高到4.75美元。

嘉茂商产信托起5分到1.79元。瑞士银行因它近期的股价表现胜于同行，将它的评级从“买入”降至“中性”，但却把它的目标价调高到1.88元。

联合环境技术再涨5.5分到52.5分。它宣布以630万元或每股18分收购3500万股亚洲水务科技股票。临沂震元纸业起1.5分到23.5分。它表示为了促使纸化学生产产能增加一倍，已经斥资约8000万元人民币到扩充生产设施上。

胜科海事跌3分到3.16元，吉宝企业起5分到8.38元。大华继显研究认为巴西石油将会压低浮式生产储油船的承建价格，意味着有关合同的毛利率会偏低，因此分别给予胜科和吉宝“持有”和“抛售”评级。

黄金股票下挫1.40美元到97.70美元。

談判破裂 克萊斯勒破產成定局

（華盛頓30日訊）據知情人士透露，美國財政部與克萊斯勒(Chrysler)貸款提供方所進行的旨在避免克萊斯勒破產的談判宣告破裂，這意味著克萊斯勒在週四申請破產保護已變得毫無懸念。

為使銀行和對沖基金寬免克萊斯勒69億美元(249.7億令吉)的債務，財政部在週三提出的最新方案中將支付給銀行和對沖基金的現金金額提高了2.5億美元(9億令吉)，達到22.5億美元(81.4億令吉)。

作為克萊斯勒的最大放貸人及貸款方的牽頭者，摩根大通在週三晚間給其他45家銀行及對沖基金就該交易進行投票表決﹔多家大型對沖基金投反對票，並拒絕讓步，為克萊斯勒申請破產鋪平道路。

申請破產保護可能也將為意大利汽車生產商飛霞公司(Fiat)接管克萊斯勒鋪平道路。

如果克萊斯勒申請破產保護，其背后原因包括，飛霞可因此將數百家汽車經銷商從其銷售網絡中清除出去。此外，克萊斯勒還有一些飛霞不希望保留的環保等方面的義務，如果申請破產，這樣的義務可以輕易地消除。

Source

Traders bet on Wall Street rising

Hang Seng's surge, 60-point bounce in Dow Jones Industrial Average June futures push STI up 41 points

IF INDICES in this part of the world should rise sharply, it's a fair bet that it was because traders are betting heavily on Wall Street rising just as sharply later the same day. Such was the case yesterday when fears of Mexican swine flu, which had dragged the Straits Times Index down some 45 points on Monday and Tuesday, were suddenly banished, thanks to a 2.7 per cent rise in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and a 60-point bounce in the June futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The outcome was a 41.16-point rise in the STI to 1,849.57, with some amount of short-covering no doubt playing a part.

The bulk of brokers' reports dealt with the possible consequences on markets if the swine flu threat was to rise beyond present, relatively benign levels.

In a Hong Kong Economics report on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley said that it thinks the negative impact on the economy will be smaller than that experienced during the 2003 Sars outbreak. 'The biggest blow during Sars was the collapse of in-bound tourism, which will unlikely be the case this time round as Hong Kong/China is not the source of the outbreak,' said MS. It also said that Hong Kong today is different from 2003 because the relevant authorities are better prepared for epidemic disease outbreaks.

Airline stocks have understandably come under pressure this week, although Singapore Airlines yesterday rebounded 16 cents to $10.30 with 2.7 million traded.

In assessing the impact of the swine flu on SIA, DBS Vickers said in a Tuesday note that it does not expect a major impact on the airline's business yet, because SIA does not fly to Mexico and flies to only a few US cities.

'Of greater importance is a recovery in demand and thus load factors, which can help the stock re-rate . . . Maintain 'hold' with $11.30 target price. The earnings outlook for the next two quarters remains weak and we would advise buying only if 1) load factors start to improve or 2) the shares drop below $9 per share,' said DBSV.

Elsewhere, Chartered Semiconductor was the day's most active stock, rising 1.5 cents to 16.5 cents on volume of 84.4 million. Goldman Sachs yesterday released a 'sell' on the counter, saying that because the stock has doubled in the past month and is now trading at 0.6 times 2009 estimated book, it is overvalued. Among other reasons, GS also based its call on Chartered not having had positive annual cash flow since inception and the likelihood that it will need further financing in 2009-10 to supplement a recently-completed rights issue.

Meanwhile, Credit Suisse (CS) joined the ranks of investment houses such as Nomura, UBS Investment Research and Citi Investment Research in recommending an 'overweight' on the local market.

In a April 28 Strategy report, CS said it believes that the local market may have bottomed and could gain 20-48 per cent from current levels. It said it is 'overweighting' banks and financials while 'underweighting' telecoms and property.

In a April 24 Global Economics Weekly report, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said that the current bounce on Wall St is at best, 'the famed reflexive rebound that occurs between down-legs of a secular bear market'.

It added that economic support for the rally has been dubious so far and pointed out that although bull markets may start out being driven by technicals like sentiment and market positioning, they have to be driven by economic fundamentals to be sustained.

Shares close up 2.28%

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 2.28 per cent higher on Wednesday, boosted by strong performances in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index closed 41.16 points higher at 1,849.57 on volume of 1.52 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$777 million).

Gainers led losers 373 to 116, with 761 issues unchanged.

'We are basically following the region,' said a trader at bank-backed brokerage.

'The initial reaction by the market to the swine flu outbreak was probably overdone.'

Hong Kong share prices closed 2.76 per cent higher on Wednesday, while China shares climbed 2.78 per cent.

Banking shares closed higher. DBS advanced 11 cents to $9.10, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp climbed 12 cents to $5.48 and United Overseas Bank edged up six cents to $11.00.

Among property shares, CapitaLand rose 13 cents to $2.56, City Developments gained 14 cents to $5.82 while Keppel Land was unchanged at $1.67.

Singapore Airlines gained 16 cents to $10.30 and Singapore Telecommunications rose eight cents to $2.54.

Investment holding company Sembcorp Industries was up nine cents to $2.65 and motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage climbed 34 cents to $13.26.

Shares close 1.8% lower

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares fell 1.85 per cent on Monday on fears over the economic impact of a deadly swine flu outbreak, analysts said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 34.24 points down at 1,818.61, led by Singapore Airlines on concerns that air travel will take a further hit from the new health threat.

Volume was 1.77 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$774 million). Losers outnumbered gainers 427 to 125, with 700 issues unchanged.

The STI's decline was in line with other regional bourses, as fears of a worldwide swine flu outbreak dragged markets down.

'We expect uncertainty to hit the markets this week on growing concerns of the swine flu spreading and that a possible cure for this is not yet certain,' said NetResearch Asia.

'Much like SARS did in 2003, this would deal another blow to the travel and leisure industry.' Singapore Airlines dived 48 cents to $10.12 and Singapore Telecommunications eased two cents to $2.47.

Banking shares closed lower. DBS and United Overseas Bank eased six cents apiece to $8.98 and $11.12 respectively, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp shed 12 cents to $5.31.

Among property shares, CapitaLand fell 12 cents to $2.47, City Developments retreated 16 cents to $5.67 and Keppel Land slid five cents to $1.71.

Motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage fell 40 cents to $12.66 while agricultural products supplier Olam International rose five cents to $1.68.

亚太股市大多下跌 猪流感疫情令投资者谨慎行事

亚洲股市大多走低，美国和墨西哥爆发的猪流感疫情令投资者谨慎行事，旅游类和航空类股遭受重创，但制药类股走强。香港股市收跌2.7%。

东京股市收盘微幅走高，受大型银行股上涨提振。但由于爆发猪流感疫情的消息导致美元走软，并引发投资者担心美国股市可能对这一消息作出负面反应，东京股市回吐了早盘时的大部分涨幅。日经225指数收盘涨18.35点，至8726.34点，涨幅0.2%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨3.05点，至833.10点，涨幅0.4%。市场成交量温和，约为20亿股。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨10点，至8750点，涨幅0.1%。

航空和酒店类股大幅下跌拖累香港股市收盘走低，墨西哥、美国和加拿大猪流感疫情的爆发引发了国际旅游业可能大幅下滑的担忧。中资银行股也走低，因在美国运通(American Express)和安联保险(Allianz)合计持有的2.3%的中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 简称：工商银行)股份中，有一半即将解除锁定。恒生指数跌418.43点，至14,840.42点，跌幅2.7%，盘中低点14,798.90点。成交额总计530.1亿港元，高于上周五的517.3亿港元。

中国股市连续第二个交易日走低。受猪流感疫情引发的担忧拖累，猪肉供应商和航空类股下挫。基准上证综合指数收盘下跌1.8%，至2405.35点，上周五跌0.6%。深证综合指数跌3.2%，至794.95点。

澳大利亚股市小幅走高，全天走势振荡。墨西哥爆发猪流感疫情在全球股市引起紧张情绪。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘涨19.3点，至3731.6点，涨幅0.5%，市场交投淡静。股指早盘曾一度升至五个交易日高点3780.8点，之后又回落至3680.6点低点。

新加坡股市收盘走低，受到猪流感疫情可能在全球蔓延的担忧拖累。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌34.24点，至1818.61点，跌幅1.8%。下跌股以427比125领先上涨股。成交量为18亿股，高于上周五的14亿股。

STI closes up 0.9%

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 0.90 per cent higher on Thursday as investors picked up bargains following recent declines, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index added 16.57 points to end at 1,859.98 on volume of 1.55 billion shares worth $1.25 billion (US$831 million).

Gainers led losers 251 to 198, with 792 issues unchanged.

'It seems as though the correction in the last few days has been enough to get some bargain-hunting underway again,' said a trader at a local brokerage.

Banking shares were mixed. DBS eased two cents to $9.03 while Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gained seven cents to $5.56 and United Overseas Bank closed 12 cents higher at $11.20.

Among property shares, CapitaLand fell five cents to $2.65 while City Developments climbed seven cents to $5.83 and Keppel Land rose 12 cents to $1.88.

Singapore Airlines advanced 22 cents to $10.82 while Singapore Telecommunications remained at $2.47.

Agribusiness group Wilmar International gained 18 cents to $3.61 and beverage maker Fraser and Neave edged up a cent to $2.60.

亚太股市周四多数上涨

亚太股市周四多数收高，汽车股在东京股市领涨。中国股市午盘后自低位反弹，并带动香港股市收复前一日的部分失地。

东京股市周四走高，汽车类股领涨，因为在高盛(Goldman Sachs)将汽车类股评级上调至具有吸引力的级别之后，市场预期全球汽车销售将有所回暖。日经225指数涨119.71点，至8847.01点，涨幅1.4%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨9.54点，至839.50点，涨幅1.2%。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨80点，至8830点，涨幅0.9%。

香港股市走高，汇丰控股(HSBC)领涨，受投资者对金融类股的逢低买盘以及中国大陆股市的涨势提振。恒生指数收盘涨336.01点，至15,214.46点，涨幅2.3%，股指本交易日早些时候一度升至15,222.20点的高位。中国股市收盘小幅走高，因投资者逢低吸纳金属和煤炭类股，但是围绕企业业绩的担忧限制了股指涨幅。基准的上证综合指数收盘上涨0.1%，至2463.95点，盘中低点为2422.79点。深证综合指数上涨0.7%，至825.22点。

澳大利亚股市涨至三日高点，受指数基金买盘、消费必需品行业的并购活动以及瑞信(Credit Suisse)好于预期的业绩等诸多因素推动。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘上涨74.8点，至3743.0点，涨幅2.0%；盘中一度触及3745.4点。成交量放大。此前，股指自上周五触及3851.2点的五个月新高后，已连续三个交易日走低。今日的上扬扭转了市场的颓势。

新加坡股市走高，受股市近期下跌之后出现的一些逢低买盘推动，但分析师们表示，市场短期内将维持振荡。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘涨16.57点，至1859.98点，涨幅0.9%。大盘251至股票上涨，198只股票下跌。成交量为16亿股，低于周三的17亿股。

Is SGX price surge overdone?

THE stock market, they say, is driven by hope, greed and fear.

In simple terms, greed led investors to push stock prices to dizzying heights some two years back, while fear drove investors out as the economy headed south.

And judging by the recent stock market rally, hope appears to be creeping back into the system.
Anecdotally, there is evidence that investors starved for some stock market action have been nibbling away.

This has benefited the stock of Singapore Exchange (SGX) as some investors went on a buying spree in the hope that the market could have bottomed.

Within a short span of three months, the stock has recovered some 25 per cent in price and has even outperformed the Straits Times Index.

But should investors be hopeful? Several analysts have noted in their comments on SGX's Q3 earnings that the speed of the stock's recovery was not justified.

The exchange reported a 45.5 per cent dive in quarterly net profit to $55.3 million from $101.5 million a year ago.

Though the earnings broadly met expectations, there were surprises in the derivatives trading segment, as net derivatives clearing revenue dropped 20 per cent to $31.2 million.

This suggests that SGX's derivatives trading - seen as the means to offset the slump in securities revenue - may not have been as strong as earlier touted.

'As the derivatives engine sputtered, SGX's earnings stream is not looking as robust anymore,' said CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng, who downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform'. 'Time to take money off the table,' he said in a client note.

'On a more structural note, we wonder if the blow-up over the S-chip asset class means that listing pipelines and turnover velocities for SGX will be hampered in the years ahead, making HKSE (Hong Kong stock exchange) the preferred exchange,' he added.

Many have also hesitated to call a bottom, despite the improved average daily trading value seen in April. It now hovers around $1 billion, as compared with $910 million in Q3.

OCBC analyst Carmen Lee noted yesterday that it was too early to call for a recovery. 'While some indicators have shown signs of bottoming-out, our view remains that a sustained economic recovery is necessary for confidence to return to the market.'

While some see the GDP figures of Q1 as indicating that the economy has hit the floor, analysts have cautioned that other factors such as consumer spending would determine a turnaround.
And as unemployment is set to rise, spending will be crimped, indicating a potential fall in investor interest over the next few quarters as pent-up demand pushing the markets up now fades away.

As Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee puts it, there has been 'an overdose of optimism'. 'SGX's sharp price rally . . . and premium valuations to its peers look overdone,' she said in a report yesterday.
So take a swig from your cup and call it half-empty. This burst of hope that shares of SGX are riding on could pop soon.

受客户Petroprod临时清盘影响 胜科海事股价下跌

受客户Petroprod公司临时清盘(provisional liquidation)事件影响，胜科海事(Sembcorp Marine)的股价昨天一度跌至两个多星期以来的新低。
　　
胜科海事的股价昨天一度下滑至2.02元，跌幅高达9.4％，早上10时24分时则回升到2.09元，并在闭市时回涨到2.13元，全日跌幅为0.10元(即4.5％)。　　　　
　　
挪威石油公司Petroprod公司是在开曼群岛(Cayman Islands)注册的，这家公司日前被令临时清盘。
　　
胜科海事独资子公司裕廊船厂(Jurong Shipyard)在2007年5月，曾获得Petroprod子公司——Petroprod D&P I Ltd一份价值4亿4200万美元(约6亿7000万新元)的合同，为对方建造一座能在恶劣环境中运作的升降式钻油台(jack-up rig)。裕廊船厂原本预计在2010年中交货。　　
　　
Petroprod的另外一家子公司Petroprod 1也把一个将现有油槽船(tanker)改造成浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的项目合同，颁发给裕廊船厂。因此，两项合同的总值超过5亿美元。
　　
胜科海事日前发表文告指出，裕廊船厂已接获Petroprod被令临时清盘的通知，裕廊船厂目前正向Petroprod的临时(公司)清算人(KPMG公司)索取更多有关资料，若有必要，集团也会提供新的消息。集团相信，这起事件不会对这两项合同造成任何实质影响。
　　
一般来说，钻油台工程都需要客户以竣工程度来定期支付工程期款。据媒体报道，胜科海事相信已为钻油台工程收取了约一半的工程费。
　　
据挪威报章TradeWinds报道，Petroprod的机构债券持有人向法庭申请清盘令。Petroprod为这两个项目融资所发行的债券面值总值约为3亿美元。
　　
然而，据一名知情者透露，这些债券持有人希望这两个项目还能继续进行，因为他们相信项目的价值，但却因为某些事件而对Petroprod的管理层没有信心。
　　
今年2月，Petroprod也曾表示因为信贷紧缩，要获得贷款和进行证券融资不容易。

由于原油价格已从去年7月的顶峰下滑了66％，环球信贷紧缩的问题也促使一些钻油台经营者取消与船厂的订单或延迟交货日期。


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美股收盘上涨；投资者关注经济复苏的迹象

美国股市大幅上扬，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘上涨逾100点；因为投资者关注国际纸业公司(International Paper Co., IP)、英特尔(Intel Co., INTC)的表态及联邦政府数据中体现出来的经济需求改善迹象。道琼斯指数涨109.44点，至8029.62点，涨幅1.38%；距离近期收盘高位还有不到60点。标准普尔500指数涨10.56点，至852.06点，涨幅1.25%；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.08点，至1626.8点，涨幅0.07%；不过英特尔下跌限制了该指数涨势。

在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)于美东时间下午2点公布黄皮书(Beige Book)后，美国股市进一步上涨。

虽然整体消费支出依然疲软，但部分辖区报告称，销售额小幅上升或降幅放缓。房地产市场情况类似，市况仍然疲软，但部分辖区称住房销售有所回升。

据美国全国住房建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders, 简称NAHB)/富国银行住房市场指数(Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)显示，4月份单户型预售屋建筑商信心指数上升了5点，至14点，为2003年5月份以来的最大单月升幅。

这是该指数六个月以来首次升至两位数字。国际纸业公司股价涨1.58美元，至8.80美元，涨幅22%，因德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)此前援引该公司管理人士的话称，对经济敏感的市场即将复苏。英特尔股价跌39美分，至15.62美分，跌幅2.4%，该公司此前警告称，预计第二财政季度收入与第一财季持平或略低于第一财季。

不过，英特尔表示，个人电脑市场最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。野村证券公司(Nomura Securities)经济学家David Resler表示，周二的一个积极信号是库存销售比率在下降。他表示，这是经济复苏或反弹的先期迹象。

市场对中国经济数据寄予厚望

中国周四最好能够传出一些好消息来。

毕竟，最近正是在稍微令人欣慰的中国经济数据的支撑下，亚洲股市才实现了大幅飙升。

正是因为中国，市场才抱着“下滑势头放缓就相当于上扬”的看法，认为市况的逐步好转总比没有任何变化强。

中国方面一直在传出信贷规模持续上升的消息，但多数分析师怀疑这种状况能否持久。与此同时，亚洲其他地区则显示出对华出口略微有所复苏的迹象。

上述情况使市场忽视了国内生产总值(GDP)、工业产值及贸易等那些显示经济依然普遍疲软的数据。新加坡海峡时报指数周二上涨1.1%，尽管此前公布的第一季度GDP数据十分糟糕，同时新加坡政府还将2009年GDP降幅预期从此前的2%-5%下调至了6%-9%。

不过投资者却选择将注意力放在新加坡3月份出口数据上。该数据显示，与韩国和台湾类似，新加坡的出口一定程度上也受到了中国需求的提振。但投资者实际上是在孤注一掷。市场起先曾将希望寄托在美国经济复苏上，现在又开始指望中国经济的恢复。

这样做的危险在于，一旦中国不再传来利好的经济数据，那么就会促使近期风险偏好高涨的汇市、股市以及金属市场等出现回调，部分市场人士认为，这种情况不可避免。

中国周四将公布包括GDP数据在内的一系列第一季度经济数据。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家们预计，中国第一季度GDP将较上年同期增长6.0%，低于去年第四季度6.8%的增幅。

对中国而言，6.0% GDP的增幅已是7年来最低水平，但考虑到世界大多数国家的状况，这仍是相当不错的增长率。市场还对中国季度性经济数据寄予厚望。（中国政府通常不公布季度性经济数据，但多数经济学家会从官方数据中推算出季度数据。）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家马骏预计，经季节性因素调整后，中国第一季度GDP折合成年率将较上季度增长6.8%，根据估算的第四季度GDP增速为1.5%。市场普遍预计，定于周四公布的固定资产投资、工业产值及消费者价格指数(CPI)等数据将对中国经济增长前景构成支撑。

鉴于市场如此倾向于认为周四公布的中国经济数据会表现强劲，揭晓结果的责任就落在中国政府身上了，中国政府或者让市场如愿以偿或者戳破这个希望气球。

亚太股市周三涨跌互见

亚太股市周三涨跌互见，一些投资者担心近期股市涨幅过大，因而获利回吐。受英特尔的悲观预期影响，科技股成为领跌板块。

东京股市下跌，因前夜美国股市遭遇获利回吐，令日本金融及科技类股承压，另外日圆反弹也打击了股市人气。日经225指数下跌99.72点，至8742.96点，跌幅1.1%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数下跌8.17点，至835.25点，跌幅1%。市场成交量温和，约为23亿股。

对中国经济反弹以及中国政府将推出更多经济刺激措施的预期推动香港股市连续第三个交易日走高，指数权重股中国移动有限公司(China Mobile Ltd., 0941.HK, 简称：中国移动)补涨，推高大盘。恒生指数收盘上涨89.46点，至15,669.62点，涨幅0.57%，盘中交易区间15,213.39点至15,669.85点。

中国股市连续第五个交易日收高；中国明日将公布第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。不过，继近期上涨后，股市在本交易日大部分时间横盘整理。上证综现甘张陶?.4%，至2536.06点。深证综合指数涨1.2%，至860.37点。

澳大利亚股市小幅走低，近期买进银行股的投资者在美国金融企业公布业绩前获利回吐。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌5.4点，至3747.5点，跌幅0.1%。

新加坡股市收盘走高，收复了最初追随美国股市前夜跌势而产生的失地，主要受到投资者对小型股的持续需求推动，此外，市场对中国政府将推出额外经济刺激方案的预期推动香港股市反弹，这也给新加坡股市带来指引。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘上涨8.97点，至1,905.99点，涨幅0.5%。

How to avoid a short squeeze As stocks rally and feds circle, short sellers face tough calls

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Short sellers are being ambushed from all sides, from tighter regulations to double-digit stock gains. But there are ways to get out of the jungle alive.
Selling stocks short, which worked well as the market plunged to its bear-market lows, came back to bite practitioners as the broad market staged a swift, double-digit rally over the last month.

A watchful eye on contrarian indicators, heavily shorted stocks and safe-haven investment flows -- plus an ear for market sentiment -- can help investors determine when it's time to get out of, or back into, a short-selling strategy.

"You want to look for extremes," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds, which runs $5 billion in exchange-traded and mutual funds, including leveraged short funds such as Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares.

That largely means watching the metrics that signal investor fears have gone too far, such as highs in the CBOE Volatility Index, called the Vix, and gold prices, as well as lows in Treasury-bond yields and investor-sentiment surveys. When investors are hunkering down in cash, Treasurys and gold, the thinking goes, stocks may have sold off too much and are ready to rally.

"A huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines and in safe havens creates a recipe for a snapback," Brigandi said.

Retail investors can engage in short sales -- placing bets that an individual stock or a broader sector will fall -- by borrowing stock through a margin account or purchasing exchange-traded funds or mutual funds that engage in short trades. E-Trade Financial Corp and Scottrade, for instance, allow investors to sell stock short with as little as $2,000 in a margin account.

Prescription for heartburn

To execute a short sale, investors borrow stock, then sell it. If the shares fall, they can buy them back at a lower price, return the securities to the lender and pocket the difference as profit.
It was an attractive strategy as U.S. stocks were moving toward 12-year lows earlier this year. But in the past month, they rebounded quickly and dramatically, with the S&P 500 jumping about 27%. Some beaten-down stocks, such as Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corp, made gains of that magnitude in a single day's trading.

This climate spells heartburn for short sellers. When a lot of investors suddenly want to buy a stock, brokers can require short sellers to return those borrowed shares. To "cover" their positions, short sellers need to buy shares in the market -- perhaps at higher prices than those at which they originally sold them, triggering a loss.

What's worse, demand from a multitude of short sellers trying to cover their positions at the same time can send prices even higher -- that's known as a short squeeze.

"This is a very high-risk environment to be short," said Doug Noland, a senior portfolio manager on Federated Investors' $1.3 billion Federated Prudent Bear Fund. "Short squeezes can be dramatic, and a lot of money can be lost."

The dramatic recent rallies in the broader market and in some specific sectors have battered short sellers who bet against company stocks and index-based ETFs.

Take recent action in SPDR Financial Select, an ETF that tracks financial companies -- and was the fourth-most-shorted stock on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of March. Bad news for these shorts: The ETF has rallied 72% since the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low March 6.

SPDR S&P 500, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, was the second-most-shorted stock on the NYSE. It's vaulted 25% since March 6.

Meanwhile, securities regulators are debating ways to rein in the impact of some forms of short selling.

Under pressure from lawmakers and from banks, the Securities and Exchange Commission is considering five approaches to reinstating the uptick rule, which restricts the short selling of stocks that are in decline.

Regulators can crack down even more heavily on short selling when certain sectors are getting pummeled. Last year the SEC placed a temporary restriction on short selling in nearly 800 financial institutions' shares.

Bear tracks

In this dicey environment, retail investors have to keep a close eye on signs that a bear market is about to turn bullish.
One signpost is a jump in the Vix to levels exceeding 80%.
The index, which reflects expectations for future volatility in S&P 500 stocks, rose to about 81% on Nov. 20. Over roughly the next seven weeks, the S&P 500 gained 24%.

A steep jump in gold prices and Treasury bonds, two asset classes that are traditionally bid up when investors are feeling particularly pessimistic about stocks, can also flag a coming rebound in stocks.

Two weeks after gold prices shot past $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 20, the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low of 666.

Low Treasury yields, which fall as bond prices climb, can also signal stocks are readying for a rebound -- though the reversal can take time.

Starting in mid-September, in the wake of the Lehman Bros collapse and the bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investors were so hungry for safe, liquid government debt that they were willing to do without any interest payments at all on the shortest-term Treasurys.

Yields on 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills, which move inversely to prices, neared 0% as investors gave up on returns and tried to protect capital.

"That's not a normal market when that starts to happen; that's extreme fear," said Direxion's Brigandi.

The S&P 500 hit new lows after 1-month T-bill yields skirted 0% in September. But by December it was rallying, a bad turn for shorts.

Sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks or sectors can spell trouble for short sellers everywhere, Prudent Bear's Noland said. "We don't like to see stocks with big short positions outperforming the market," Noland said.

Citigroup, the most shorted stock on the NYSE, has tripled to just over $3 a share since March 6.
On Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares jumped 23% after the retailer posted a smaller-than-expected profit decline. Investors had sold about 12% of its shares short, a relatively high proportion.

And in October, the German automobile manufacturer Volkswagen AG briefly became the world's largest company by market capitalization after hedge funds shorting the stock -- caught by surprise when Porsche Automobil Holding revealed a larger stake in the company -- made a forced grab for shares to cover their short positions.

Intense bidding for the few shares owned by the public quadrupled the value of VW shares in just two days.

The New York Stocks Exchange maintains a list of the most shorted stocks on its Web site.

In any market, professional short sellers say it's easy to get burned by focusing on a company's fundamentals and ignoring sentiment among investors.

That was a lesson many short sellers learned the hard way in the late 1990s, as stocks in start-up technology companies skyrocketed along with a general equity-market euphoria, even if the companies had booked no profits and faced questionable prospects. Many later went bust, but only after handing heavy losses to short sellers along the way.

"All companies, even companies that are total frauds, are susceptible to emotional responses to overall market action," said Manuel Asensio, managing member of Mill Rock Investment Advisors, a hedge-fund manager that engages in short selling and other strategies.

Source

Shares close 2.5% up

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 2.5 per cent higher on Thursday, mirroring gains in regional markets as investors cheered Japan's plans for a new stimulus package, dealers said.

The main Straits Times Index rose 44.55 points to 1,828.51. Volume was 1.64 billion shares worth $1.17 billion (US$780 million) and there were 364 rising issues, 125 losers and 709 issues even.

Japan's plans for a fresh stimulus package worth over US$150 billion are seen as good news with Singapore likely to gain in terms of improved exports should the world's second biggest economy turn around, dealers said.

'If one believes in economic recovery, the Singapore market should be a good bet given it is among the cheapest in the region and has such an open economy,' a trader at a local brokerage said.

Among the banks, DBS added 41 cents to $8.91, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp put on 16 cents to $5.46 and United Overseas Bank was 38 cents higher at $10.50.

Singapore Airlines climbed 48 cents to $11.46 and Singapore Telecommunications was three cents up at $2.55.

Shares close 2.47% lower

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares slid 2.47 per cent on Tuesday as investors booked some profits after recent gains, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 45.59 points lower at 1,802.39 on volume of 1.22 billion shares worth $1.08 billion (US$713 million).

Losers outnumbered gainers 297 to 141, with 745 issues unchanged.

Dealers said the pullback after five days of gains would not significantly derail the surge.

'Selling volumes are fairly light, so the correction looks healthy in nature and shouldn't be too dramatic,' said Gabriel Gan, senior vice president of AmFraser Securities.

Another dealer said pockets of positive economic data out of China and the United States should help galvanise the market.

'We believe that bears will have limited ammunition as economic data out of China and the US continues to improve,' said Yeo Kee Yan, a strategist at DBS Vickers Securities.

Banking shares closed down. DBS fell 35 cents to $8.83, United Overseas Bank slipped 46 cents to $10.48 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp eased nine cents to $5.24.

Among property shares, CapitaLand shed 24 cents to $2.57, City Developments retreated 36 cents to $5.82 and Keppel Land closed 13 cents lower at $1.64.

Singapore Telecommunications gained seven cents to $2.53 while Singapore Airlines was unchanged at $11.00.

Oil rig maker Keppel Corp dropped 32 cents to $5.46 and agribusiness firm Wilmar International eased three cents to $3.32.

亚太股市周二涨跌互见

亚太股市周二涨跌互见。由于投资者都在等待美国及部分亚太公司发布第一季度业绩情况，市场交投清淡，股指一直在前日收盘点位附近徘徊。

东京股市收盘小幅走低，前夜美国股市下跌促使投资者对新日本制铁(Nippon Steel)等近期上涨的个股进行获利回吐，市场交投淡静。日经指数跌25.08点，至8832.85点，跌幅0.3%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数涨1.63点，至832.60点，涨幅0.2%。六月日经指数期货收盘跌30点，至8860点，跌幅0.3%。

香港股市收盘走低，主要因投资者在恒生指数前三个交易日累计上涨11%后进行获利了结。但是，在中资金融类股走高的带动下，股指的跌幅在尾盘收窄。分析师预计，恒生指数将追随中国大陆股市近期涨势而重拾升势，并将在未来几个交易日内上探15,800点。中国大陆股市周二收于七个月高点。恒生指数周二收盘跌69.07点，至14,928.97点，跌幅0.5%；股指在前市触及盘中低点14,743.71点。今年迄今为止，恒生指数已累计上涨3.8%。分析师称，成交额为509.3亿港元，远低于周一的621.9亿港元，这说明抛盘压力并不强。

中国股市创下逾七个月高点，金属价格上涨以及对于资源需求上升的期望带动有色金属类股走高。基准上证综合指数收盘涨0.8%，至2439.18点，为去年8月20日收于2523.28点以来的最高水平。深证综合指数涨0.8%，至2439.18点。上海证交所成交额降至人民币1,184.4亿元（合173.3亿美元），上周五为人民币1,596.3亿元。中国金融市场周一因公共假日休市。澳大利亚股市收盘走低，结束连续三个交易日涨势，未受澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)减息、

澳大利亚电信(Telstra)在政府宣布国家宽频计划后强劲上扬的影响。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌50.3点，至3706.3点，跌幅1.3%，给位于该水平的技术支撑位带来压力。该指数盘中一度触及两日低位3704.5点。澳大利亚央行最新利率决定与市场普遍预期相符，将隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点，至49年低位3.00%。

新加坡股市经历了交易员们所谓的“良性回调”，最终收盘走低，因投资者决定对过去几周的涨势进行部分获利回吐。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌45.59点，至1802.39点，跌幅2.5%。大盘有297只股票下跌，141只股票上涨。市场成交量总计12亿股，低于周一的成交量20亿股。

Malaysia's CIMB to close 60 branches-report

KUALA LUMPUR, April 6 (Reuters) - Malaysia's second largest lender CIMB Bank will close nearly 60 surplus branches this year to save up to 60 million ringgit ($16.77 million) annually, local daily The Malaysian Reserve reported on Monday.

The bank has identified the 60 banks to be closed in August, the report quoted its head of consumer sales and distribution, Sulaiman Mohd Tahir as saying.

"CIMB can save in the region of 50 million to 60 million ringgit from the closing of the branches from next year onwards. And when we close the branches, we will redeploy the people.

"The group may also see the possibility of new revenue to be generated by redeploying people to other areas which has value creation in terms of new business," he said.

The network rationalisation was prompted by the merger between CIMB and Southern Bank in 2006.

Source

STI skyrockets 6% on recovery hopes

US data, G-20 optimism help fuel powerful Asian rally

(SINGAPORE) An improvement in US economic numbers ignited hopes yesterday that a recovery could be taking shape and sent the Straits Times Index up 101.08 points, or 5.9 per cent, to a three-month high of 1,803.34.

The rise was in tandem with gains elsewhere, led in the region by a 7 per cent jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and a 100-point rise in June futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Turnover here, excluding foreign currency issues, which dropped to a low $755 million on Wednesday, rose to 1.8 billion units worth $1.7 billion yesterday.

The last time the index closed at this level was Jan 9, when it ended at 1,806.02. In the three weeks since touching 1,456.95 on March 9, the index has gained 346.39 points, or 24 per cent, on hopes of a US-led economic recovery.

'Bear market rallies can be very powerful and can sometimes last a few months,' said a dealer, suggesting further upside is still possible. But most also admit that unless economic figures show clear signs of improvement, the upcoming earnings reporting season could slam the brakes on the market's rise.

Yesterday's push was fuelled by hopes that the US economy was improving, following improved residential construction figures and a manufacturing report that was bad, but not as bad as expected. Also helping were comments by officials that there are signs that coordinated international action to spur the global economy is gaining some traction.

'There's speculation that something good will come out of the G-20 meeting, so the buying is also in anticipation of this,' said a dealer. Leaders from the 20 nations started their meeting in London yesterday.

Assessing local news of a 13.8 per cent drop in private property prices in the first quarter, DMG & Partners said that although there will be more prospective buyers, most will only window-shop until prices become considerably more attractive.

'HDB prices should fall further on the back of economic weakness, job insecurity and filtering of interest into the mass market condominiums, which should result in an increase in bargaining power of buyers,' DMG said.

'While we are cognisant of units disposed at distressed prices in the secondary market, these remain selective ones. For the remaining year, we should see an increased quantum of such transactions, especially from the 10,000 units that will receive TOP (temporary occupation permits) in 2009. As such, we are keeping our neutral call for the property sector.'

In his latest market commentary dated April 1, fund manager Marc Faber said that the current bounce is because stock markets were heavily oversold and are experiencing a powerful bear market rally. 'While I do not expect any full-market recovery within the next few years (after that, we shall need to see how much money will be printed) I would not be surprised to see some further headway until summer 2009,' Dr Faber said.

'Very near-term, the stock market has become overbought and should correct. But for the immediate positive stance to be maintained, it is important that the November 2008 low of 741 for the S&P 500 not be violated on the downside.'

The S&P 500 closed at 811.08 on Wednesday.

Dr Faber also pointed out that although US residential construction appears to have stabilised, non-residential construction has only just started to contract, so talk of a recovery is premature.

Shares close 5.94% higher

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 5.94 per cent higher on Thursday, mirroring gains in regional markets following Wall Street's overnight bounce.

The Straits Times Index rose 101.08 points to 1,803.34. Volume traded totalled 1.82 billion shares worth $1.66 billion (US$1.1 billion), and there were 417 rising issues, 107 losers while 673 issues were even.

A better-than-expected survey on the US manufacturing sector was the main reason behind the market optimism, dealers said.

'The market has for some time believed the global economy will take a long, long time to get out of the doldrums and that it'll go into depression,' a dealer at a foreign brokerage said.

'But now, we're seeing some data showing things are not as bad as thought, and that some of the pump-priming measures by governments are starting to take effect,' the dealer said.

Among the banks, DBS advanced 55 cents to $9, United Overseas Bank put on 68 cents to $10.48 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp was 25 cents higher at $5.05.

Singapore Airlines rose 32 cents to $10.56, Singapore Telecommunications gained two cents to $2.55 and Keppel Corp was 59 cents up at $5.77.

In the property sector, Keppel Land firmed 12 cents to $1.60, City Developments added 56 cents to $5.70 and CapitaLand was 25 cents stronger at $2.60.