Sunday, June 8, 2008

荣南控股获总值8335万元建筑承包合同

荣南控股(Yongnam Holdings)取得滨海湾金沙(The Marina Bay Sands)综合度假胜地的两个建筑承包合同,总值8335万元。它在去年11月和今年5月间,已取得了四个合同,总值1亿7770万元。

两个新的合同当中,一个是日本五洋建设公司(Penta-Ocean Contruction)发给的,价值4135万元,荣南控股将为这个客户供应、装配和建起综合度假胜地的ArtScience Museum的钢筋结构。

第二个合同是胜宝旺工程建筑(Sembawang Engineers and Constructors)发给的,价值4200万元,荣南控股将为该客户供应、装配和建起综合度假胜地的赌场和剧场墩座的钢筋结构。此外,它也将为该项目供应、装置和拆除零时支架、装备和覆工钣(metro decking)等。

Source

Saturday, June 7, 2008

美国商品市场:黄金大幅上涨;因美元下挫;油价飙升

黄金及其他贵金属期货周五大幅上涨,交易员和分析师们称,受美元疲软和创纪录的原油价格上涨影响。

几位交易员称,另外一个支撑贵金属价格走高的因素来自以色列副总理Shaul Mofaz的言论;他警告称,如果伊朗发展核武器项目,以色列可能会对其发动进攻。

CNCB电视台周五报导,美国国防部(U.S. Defense Department)一位官员称,没有迹象显示以色列正准备向伊朗采取军事行动。

纽约商交所Comex八月黄金结算价上涨23.50美元,报每盎司899美元;七月白银上涨26美分,报每盎司17.43美元。

黄金周四触及三周低点,引发新的投机性买盘以及空头回补。

与此同时,七月铂期货飙升68.80美元,结算价报每盎司2,081.30美元;九月钯期货飙升6.40美元,至433.80美元。

七月铜期货合约上涨8美分,至每磅3.6230美元。

Friday, June 6, 2008

新加坡股市收盘持平,因投资者获利回吐令股指回吐涨幅

新加坡股市周五收盘基本持平,因尾盘时段获利回吐盘抵消了早盘时投资者逢低买进带来的涨幅。

不过,分析师对股市走势持乐观态度(基准股指周五一度上探盘中高点3184.93点),预计股指短线有望突破3200点。

新加坡海峡时报指数收盘涨2.84点,至3146.73点,涨幅0.1%,盘中高点为3184.93点。

30只成份股中有13只收盘上涨。

大盘273只股票下跌,250只股票上涨。

与周四一样,市场成交量仍较低,为10亿股,因尽管美国股市前夜走高,但由于市场对宏观经济前景感到担忧,投资者选择离场观望。

云顶国际将竞标 英国附设赌场娱乐城

云顶国际(Genting International)成为英国The NEC Group的合作伙伴,将携手在英国发展一个消闲娱乐城,发展成本达9000万英镑(2亿4000万新元)。

该消闲娱乐城就坐落在英国伯明翰国家展览中心(The National Exhibition Centre,简称The NEC)内。云顶国际是通过英国子公司Genting Stanley (Solihull)Limited,进行这个合作项目。虽然具体详情未确定,但云顶国际发布消息时透露,该消闲娱乐城将有个“大型赌场”、水疗美容养生设施(spa)、酒店、优质酒吧及参观以及其他消闲项目。

The NEC是英国最成功的展览会场,每年吸引超过300万访客,建议中的消闲娱乐城,将为该中心增添吸引力。这个项目还需取得英国当地政府(Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council)批给执照,以经营该大型赌场。合作团队将参与竞标活动,以取得赌场经营执照。

Source

Brokers' Take

Sino-Environment Technology
June 5 close: $1.65
UBS Investment Research, June 4

$149 million convertible bond with equity swap: Sino-Environment is issuing $149 million of 4 per cent coupon convertible bonds with $2.19 conversion price, maturing in July 2013 with an investor put date in July 2010.

Sino-Env will use $67 million to enter an equity swap at $1.8276, while $76 million is earmarked for capital expenditure, working capital and M&A activities. We think that the downside, apart from dilution, is the risk from the periodic swap settlement.

We question the need for the convertible bonds, since Sino-Env's 648 million yuan (S$128 million) net cash is sufficient for its current expansion plans.

For de-nitrogenation Sino-Env will spend 265 million yuan for its facility, working capital for three desulfurisation projects should soak up 150 million yuan, and the remaining cash coupled with bank borrowings can be used for acquiring the new dust elimination company and the remaining 40 per cent of Weidong.

We think this could be a prelude to announcements that may be related to:
1) major desulfurisation and de-nitrogenation M&As; and
2) large desulfurisation project wins. Taking the long position on the swap also suggests that management is very confident of positive share price performance, in our view.

Valuation: We are reviewing our estimates. Our 12-month TP of $1.96 is based on discounted cashflow and assumes 10 per cent cost of equity and 2.5 per cent terminal growth.
BUY


China Hongxing Sports
June 5 close: $0.57
Kim Eng Research, June 4

SUCCEEDING at home and abroad: We recently received questions from clients about:
1) whether higher export sales in Q1 2008 suggest less management focus on the domestic market; and
2) whether higher overheads related to current ongoing programmes for store upgrading (revenue discounts) and store lease advance programmes will be temporary or permanent.

What's all the fuss about exports? Export mix in Q1 2008 was higher at 20 per cent of total sales compared to 12 per cent in 2007. The reasons for this are: 1) seasonality, 2) more apparel sales versus previous years, and 3) new overseas markets (eg Brazil, Vietnam, Ecuador, etc). Amidst this, domestic sales still reassuringly grew more than 35 per cent y-o-y.

Domestic sales should accelerate in H2 2008 and reduce the export mix: The higher exports certainly do not mean management is paying less attention to the domestic market, as can be seen from the higher spending on advertising & promotions this year (20 per cent versus 15 per cent in 2007). However, exports serve as a useful valve to keep capacity fully utilised and are opportunistically channelled to demand hotspots.

Vitally, export margins exceed domestic margins due to zero advertising & promotional costs. Also, as export markets are price-takers, we do not expect average selling price growth, currently projected at 5-6 per cent in 2008, to be capped at anything less.

Expansion-related overheads are temporary: China Hongxing currently has two store-related incentive programmes: a one billion yuan (S$197 million) disbursement programme to secure the leases of premium locations for mid-sized stores (100-200 sq m versus the average of 67 sq m), which they aim to complete before August 2008 (499 million yuan already disbursed); and
a 200 million yuan sales discount programme to incentivise distributors to upgrade older stores, which will end in Q1 2009. Normally, distributors are required to self-fund store upgrades every three years, but the current round is ahead of schedule.

Already seeing positive returns: China Hongxing aims to have 420 mid-sized stores opened by August 2008 (183 opened as at end-Q1 2008). Normally, it takes about six months for each store to reach six million to eight million yuan in revenue per annum, which will allow each store to be self-sustaining.

So far, the trend has been encouraging, with some stores reaching the targeted revenue within 4-5 months. We expect the revenue impact of the expanded floor space to be felt more in H2 2008, as the new stores will need to stock up on inventory. We are maintaining our 'buy' recommendation, with a TP of $0.87.

BUY

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Genting International Recovery On Track

Genting has casino plans


A Manx-based casino company has announced plans for an £85 million gambling resort in Birmingham.
Genting International’s UK arm, Genting Stanley hopes to build a mega-casino, spa, shops, and motel at the National Exhibition Centre.
The company says details are still being worked and planning permission still needs to be sought, but decisions on the scheme are expected in the near future.
Before the facility can go ahead, Genting will need a gaming license from Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council, as well as permission to operate a large casino within the complex.

Hotels need long-term plan for F1 packages: study

HOTELS need to have in place a long-term pricing strategy when it comes to room rates and hospitality packages for the Formula One race to ensure that visitors keep coming back for subsequent races.

Integrated Decisions and Systems International Inc (IDeaS), which provides revenue optimisation software to the hospitality industry, released a study conducted last September which examined two Grand Prix weekends in Shanghai, Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Melbourne.

While both occupancy and daily room rates saw an increase on average, both Shanghai and KL did not achieve full occupancy. Instead, hotels in the two cities saw occupancies of 87 per cent and 85 per cent respectively on Saturday night of the race weekend.

This could be due to weaker demand from F1 fans than anticipated, coupled with insufficient bookings from base business such as groups and air crew, the study said. A mix of customer base - both leisure and base bookings - would be ideal to maximise revenue.

Average daily rate for hotel rooms should be 55-60 per cent higher during the race weekend compared with surrounding weeks, while revenue per available room (RevPAR) generally registers an 80-90 per cent jump, the study recommends.

For Singapore, reasonable prices could prove an added incentive for visitors, should the novelty of a night race lose some of its shine over the next few years.

However, cancellations also reached a high as people might be inclined to shop around, said IDeaS' director of services, Klaus Kohlmayr, who suggested that in addition to deposits or cancellation charges, hotels should consider overbooking their rooms. Describing overselling as a 'manageable risk', he pointed out that cancellation was averaging 60 per cent higher during the race period in the three markets analysed.

A review of the booking curves for Shanghai and KL also revealed that bookings began to flow in much closer to the actual date, with the majority of demand occurring about two to three months before the race itself and over 50 per cent of individual reservations taking place within a month of arrival.

Sino Construction launches IPO to raise $35.6m

BUILDING construction and civil engineering company Sino Construction yesterday launched an initial public offering of 152,698,000 invitation shares at 39 cents each for a Singapore Exchange mainboard listing.

'The past few years have seen rapid development in Daqing, with urbanisation driving demand.' - Mr Zhao

The issue consists of 100 million new shares and about 52.7 million vendor shares.

The company, based in Daqing - China's largest petroleum production base - plans to raise net proceeds of about $35.6 million. It plans to spend $17.5 million setting up a concrete mixing plant and buying related equipment. The plant is expected to be operating by year-end. A further $10 million of the IPO proceeds will be spent on construction machinery. The balance will be used as working capital.

The IPO consists of 6,398,000 public-offer shares and 146,300,000 placement shares. All placement shares have been fully subscribed. The invitation shares are offered at a price-earnings ratio of 5.85 times based on FY2007 net earnings per share of 6.67 Singapore cents.
The company's revenue increased from 1.1 billion yuan in FY2006 to 1.16 billion yuan in FY2007. Net profit rose 18.4 per cent to 168.5 million yuan (S$33.1 million) for FY2007. As of April 1 this year, the group had a confirmed order book of 1.18 billion yuan.

Sino Construction plans to secure more big jobs with greater contract value to boost its margins and corporate image. For instance, the group has been invited to tender for the Daqing airport and railway station projects. It is also looking at expanding into second-tier Chinese cities and overseas.

Demand for the company's services is expected to be fuelled mainly by rapid urban development in Daqing, the development of an industrial corridor, and government initiatives to attract more foreign investors to Daqing.

Sino Construction's executive chairman and chief executive Zhao Chuan Wen said: 'The past few years have seen rapid development in Daqing, with urbanisation driving demand for commercial and residential projects. The urbanisation phase is still in an early stage, so we feel that there are a lot of opportunities for construction companies like ourselves.'

The public offer closes on June 10 and trading of Sino Construction's shares is expected to start on June 12.

Brokers' Take


Chartered Semiconductor
June 4 close: S$0.87
Morgan Stanley, June 3

GIVEN the tight capacity at leading edge, judicious capital spending in the industry, and competitors' announced intentions to raise prices, we see Chartered as the key beneficiary with potential for share gains and better profitability this year.
We upgrade the stock to 'overweight', and raise our 12-month TP to S$1.10, implying 31 per cent upside to current share price.

Expanding market share at 65 nanometer (nm) likely for H2 2008: As outlined recently in our foundry monthly report, we believe Chartered has been taking share over the past few quarters.
While most of it has come at the trailing edge, several indicators that we track would lead us to believe that share gains at 65nm are likely for H2 2008. These include our analysis of new 65nm tape-outs and also capacity expansion plans for leading edge.

Margin should improve from Q3 2008 onwards: As most of the 65nm tape-outs are going into mass production in H2 2008 and 2009, we expect Chartered's utilisation to improve significantly in H2 2008 and thus expect an improvement in overall margin structure.

We are forecasting operating margin to improve from (1.6 per cent)/1.3 per cent in Q1/Q2 2008, to 6.3 per cent/9.5 per cent in Q3/Q4 2008, due to larger economy scale and hence operating leverage.

Implications: While Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co remains the industry leader, high valuation and macro concerns prevent us from being more positive. We believe Chartered is a better play in the foundry sector with its attractive valuation, share gains, and potential for re-rating as its profitability improves.

The stock is trading at 0.86 times P/B, the trough of its historical range of 0.7-1.6 times; risk-reward is attractive.
OVERWEIGHT

Keppel Corporation
June 4 close: S$11.90
DBS Group Research, June 4

JUST two days after announcing its last contract win, Keppel Corp has secured another contract. The contract is valued at US$385 million and is a repeat order to build a semi-submersible drilling rig for Brazilian driller, Queiroz Galvao Oleo e Gas (QGOG). This price excludes the drilling and subsea equipment which will be supplied by the customer, QGOG.

This rig will be built to the DSS 38 design jointly developed by Keppel O&M's technology arm Deepwater Technology Group and Marine Structures Consultants of The Netherlands. Its design can operate in water depths of 9,000 feet (2,740 metres) and can meet the operational requirements in the deepwater 'Golden Triangle' region, comprising Brazil, Africa, and the Gulf of Mexico.

This latest rig, to be named Alpha Star, is a repeat order of the first semi-submersible, Gold Star, which was awarded to Keppel in August 2006. Gold Star will support Petrobras' growth plans when delivered in H2 2009, while Alpha Star may be deployed in either offshore West Africa or South America, when delivered in H2 2011.

With this, YTD wins will amount to S$2.8 billion and account for 46 per cent of our order win assumption of S$6 billion. Order book is estimated to rise to S$13.9 billion. There is no change in earnings estimates as we have already assumed S$6 billion of contract wins for FY2008.

We believe that contract flows over the last one week have stemmed from Petrobras' requiring up to 12 drilling rigs (could be a combination of jack-ups, semis and drillships) with delivery dates by mid-2012.

Both yards are currently able to deliver semis in both 2011 and 2012, while for jack-ups, delivery slots for delivery in 2010 are still available. Maintain 'hold', with TP of S$12.56.
HOLD

Gallant Venture
June 4 close: S$0.775
OCBC Investment Research, June 4

LAND sales gaining momentum: Gallant Venture recently updated that its order book for land sales has reached a record S$64 million as of May 2008 (versus S$19.5 million in April 2008), representing a quadrupling of 2007's sales.

We view Gallant's fast-growing order book as an achievement brought about by the successful launch of its Lagoi Bay project, and this could signal growing momentum of land sales from here on. Furthermore, most of its land parcels were sold at premium prices, implying that investors are still bullish on Bintan's land value despite the ripple effects brought on by the US sub-prime crisis.

Gallant continues to trade at a 21 per cent discount to the value of its landbank and a 20 per cent discount to our fair-value estimate.

We maintain our 'buy' rating on Gallant, and our RNAV-based, fair-value estimate remains at S$0.94.
BUY

高通、SK电讯和新加坡电信有意入股中国电信

《东方早报》网站周二晚间报导称,中国电信股份有限公司(China Telecom Corp., CHA, 简称:中国电信)的潜在战略投资者包括高通公司(Qualcomm Inc., QCOM)、新加坡电信(Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., SGAPY, 简称:新电信)和SK电讯(SK Telecom Co. , SKM),报导未提供消息来源。

报导称,高通已经在与中国电信谈判入股事宜,而新电信和SK电讯也都向中国电信抛出了橄榄枝,但报导没有作出具体说明。

报导称,由于中国电信将收购中国联通股份有限公司(China Unicom Ltd. , CHU)的CDMA网络,高通可能降低向中国电信收取的CDMA技术专利权使用费,作为入股协议的一部分。

报纸网址:http://www.dfdaily.com/

新加坡股市收盘走低,受信贷担忧影响;支撑位看3100点

新加坡股市周二收盘走低,因市场对信贷危机的担忧情绪再起,但分析师们称,基准海峡时报指数不大可能跌破3100点。

AmFraser资深研究副总裁Najeeb Jarhom称,海峡时报指数上次收盘低于3100点是在今年4月16日;交易员们因此相信在3100点时可以入场交易。

海峡时报指数收盘跌34.11点,至3153.94点,跌幅1.1%。

30只成份股中有22只收盘走低,大盘345只股票下跌,188只股票上涨。

市场成交量极低,为11亿股。

因市场对信贷危机的担忧情绪再起,许多投资者选择离场观望。

Singapore-listed Genting plans $176 mln UK casino

SINGAPORE, June 4 (Reuters) - Gambling group Genting International said it has agreed to jointly develop an entertainment centre in the UK for 90 million pounds ($176 million).

Genting's UK unit Genting Stanley will develop the centre, which will include a large casino, spa and hotel, at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham, Genting said in a statement.

The deal is not expected to affect Genting's earnings for the financial year ending Dec 2008, the firm said.

(Reporting by Koh Gui Qing, editing by Neil Chatterjee) ((Guiqing.Koh@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging; guiqing.koh.reuters.com@reuters.net; +65 6403 5665)) ($1=.5113 Pound)

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

BT Corporate Transparency Index (Issue 4)


云顶股价技术回扬

云顶集团(GENTING, 3182,主板贸服股)是本地一只知名且历史悠久的蓝筹股。该集团所涉足的主要业务的赌场经营、休闲和种植。此外,该集团亦拥有赌船经营、产业发展、纸张制造、发电、油及气体开发等业务。

根据云顶集团截至3月31日的季度财务报告显示,该集团的营业额从20亿2964万令吉增至21亿6431万令吉,增幅约6.6%。

而它的季度净利则从去年同期的6亿5669万令吉降低至4亿3941万令吉,降幅为33.1%。

从该股项的日线图上分析,其股价于去年10月29日再度试挑8.50令吉的阻力水平不果后,节节败退,于上周三(5月28日)创下近1年半的低位,5.70令吉。

过后,在连续两天的反弹走势中,该股作价再次返回6令吉以上的价位,在上周五闭市于6.15令吉,处于其7日与21日移动平均线之上。

有望勾出利好黄金交叉 另外,该股项的日线异同平均乖离指标(MACD)或有望勾出一道利好的黄金交叉。

技术分析而言,该股项的当前阻力水平位于6.40-6.55令吉之间。而它的当前支持水平则落在5.85令吉-6.00令吉之间。

Source

进军亚洲和国际市场 云顶国际马克联营电视业务

2008/06/02 17:50:35
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡2日讯)云顶国际与马克伯内特国际公司(Mark Burnett)携手联营,开发、制作与经销电视真人秀以及游戏节目,进军亚洲和国际市场。

云顶国际发表文告指出,该联营公司名为马克伯内特制作亚洲公司(MBPA),各别持有50%的股权,在10年独家合作关系下,主要业务在亚洲创作、制作、拥有及发行电视连续剧、游戏节目或真人秀节目。

“云顶国际将通过内部融资,并预测对公司在2008财政年的净有形资产及每股盈利不会带来任何实际影响。”

文告指出,新成立的联营公司将利用圣陶沙综合渡假名胜世界(Resorts World)的设备及旅游胜地的便利,制作电视连续剧、游戏节目或真人秀节目。

Source

了解时局·穿针引线 云顶打入伦敦市场

2008/06/01 17:34:44
●南洋商报 谢静雯整理译自《福布斯亚洲》

仍旧单身的梁铭隆,经常穿梭在全球各个据点,包括伦敦、云顶总公司马来西亚、丽星邮轮集团的香港以及新加坡。而英国方面,这个父母常住、加上求学超过10年的国家,也是他认为最棒的地方。

云顶国际董事经理陈和瑜说:“梁铭隆的背景,让他对英国有不同的观点。他也很年轻,所以他非常了解市场的年轻顾客群。” -->-->在2004年夏天,通过他的引领下,为云顶收购伦敦高档赌场Maxims铺路,并成功打入伦敦市场。

“当时该公司正要脱售,所以我与其总执行长会面,在Maxims外,他说:‘我会以账面价值卖给你。’也就是约1千800万美元(5千814万令吉),是个值得的交易,因为在2001年时他们则要求6千万美元(1亿9千380万令吉)的价格,之后该公司一直面临亏损。”

在外证实实力 “我联络我舅舅,他说:‘当然,快与他握手并去收购’,之后,我就被舅舅带入云顶,并帮助拓展业务,并坐上了策略投资主管一位。” 这样的结果绝对不是注定的,就好像许多企业巨头的子女,梁铭隆在大学后也是在外证实自己的实力。

他与姐姐在香港高盛工作,而妹妹则在英国当医生。 从小在云顶高原长大,母亲及父亲在云顶工作近20年,分别负责行政以及赌场营运。

“我们住的地方是五楼的顶层豪华公寓,与办公室是直接连接的。长大后,你会慢慢发现这不是一个其他人都能够从小长大的地方。” 隐瞒身分伦敦高盛打工 出生在富有家庭,也可以是一把“双刃刀”,当拥有机会时,因为你来自大商业家庭,所有人都预测你可以达到目标。

而梁铭隆深深牢记一句话:“你的名誉可能为你打开一扇门,但真正算数的是你在房内做的事情。” 在牛津读完地理课程后,梁铭隆在经过15个面试后,在伦敦高盛工作。

在接下来4年,他专注在合并及科技股项的交易。 他的前任上司,高盛的理查特提到梁铭隆时表示:“他是一个很聪明、勤劳的人,直到他走了,我才知道他真正的身分。” 在2003年,梁铭隆决定回到大马,也是前首相敦马哈迪执政的最后一个月。

前面的路还很长 作为林梧桐唯一一个在云顶工作的孙子,他是否会接任继承人一职,很多业内人士都是如此认为,但他倒不认同:“我还算是年轻,舅舅林国泰也是,前面的路还很长,我只要求能从每天的工作中学习。”

梁铭隆长时间投入在工作中,以完成公司拓展目标。分析员甚至透露,他甚少睡觉,更曾经在早上5点时接获他的信息或电邮回复。 这一切都只有一个原因,就是消除所有人对“云顶到底是什么公司”的疑问。

Source

梁铭隆誓让云顶赌霸全球

2008/06/01 17:34:22
●南洋商报 谢静雯整理译自《福布斯亚洲》

外祖父是创办人,舅舅是顶头上司,来到了第三代,梁铭隆在云顶扮演的,却是物色猎物的角色,为云顶投下重大赌注。

云顶除了拥有赌场业务外,旗下也坐拥能源及种植业务。2004年杪,在云顶收购英国连锁赌场公司史丹利休闲(Stanley Leisure)第一批的7%股权之前,后者所有执行人员脑中闪过的只有一句话:“云顶到底是什么公司?” -->-->“回想起当时,我们与该公司的总执行长及总营运长洽商时,他们问道:‘你们到底是谁?’他们根本没听过云顶这家公司,就算亚洲外有人知道我们,也从来没考虑我们是潜在的商业伙伴。”

梁铭隆接受《福布斯亚洲》专访时这么表示。 自2004年加入云顶后,他发誓将会改变这一切!因此,他致力寻找新的成长机会,除了提高知名度之余,也要改变他人对云顶的想法,并冀望带着云顶冲出海外,让所有人都认识云顶。

成为英国最大赌场业者 而云顶的声誉的确在不断提高当中。自在2006年以13亿美元(约41亿6千万令吉)收购史丹利休闲,成为英国最大的赌场经营者。

在新加坡方面,该公司也赢得了赌场兼度假村的竞标,计划将在2010年投入运作,并预料在2015年时能吸引近1千500万名游客前去。

Source

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Brokers' take

Indofood Agri Resources
June 2 close: S$2.47
DMG & Partners Securities, June 2

INDOFOOD Agri Resources (Ifar) is one of Indonesia's leading oil palm planters and producers of crude palm oil (CPO), producing over 312,000 tonnes in FY2007 and 170,000 tonnes in Q1 2008. It has about 165,853 ha of planted area, with a mature area of 122,151 ha. Ifar's total land bank is 406,519 ha (excluding plasma) as at end- March, up from 237,262 ha before the acquisition of London Sumatra.

Outlook for the palm oil industry is still positive. First, demand for CPO worldwide has remained strong. Consumption grew by more than 28 per cent, from 28.2 million tonnes in 2003 to 36.3 million tonnes in 2006.

Second, prices of CPO have been soaring as under-cultivation in the past has resulted in supply lagging demand. CPO prices rose to a recent high of US$1,395 per tonne in March this year.

About 74 per cent of its planted area is classified as mature and 49 per cent is in the prime age category (seven to 20 years). In addition, another 10 per cent of its planted area will be entering its prime age within the next three years. We believe Ifar's age profile of trees favourably positions it to enjoy the benefits of the current high CPO prices.

With the global trend of higher consumption of palm oil and the present high CPO prices, we believe that Ifar is in a sweet spot for growth, especially with its high ratio of mature acreage.

Using a PE of 14 times that is in line with Singapore and Malaysia plantation companies, we value Ifar at S$3.34, translating into a potential upside of 33 per cent from its last closing price of S$2.51.

We are initiating coverage on Ifar with a 'buy' rating. BUY

旅客与入住率保持在高水平 酒店业务前景看好

随着抵达我国的游客人数和本地酒店入住率(occupancy rate)保持在高水平,各家证券行看好本地酒店业务前景,其中城市发展酒店服务信托(CDL Hospitality Trusts)和大中酒店(Hotel Grand Central)尤其备受推荐。

星展集团研究报告说,抵达我国的游客人数今年4月继续稳在82万6000名,与去年大致一样,而酒店的平均入住率估计为84%,比去年同月略减1%,原因相信主要是4月间缺乏大型项目所致。可是酒店平均客房收费每晚却达到254元,年比增加了32.5%。

在接下来几个月里,星展集团预期从5月到7月举行的新加坡热卖会、9月的一级方程式(F1)赛车以及各项会议、展览与奖励旅游业(MICE)等活动将吸引更多人士前来本地,从而促进到访者人数的增长、确保入住率和客房收费处于稳定水平。

考虑到本地强劲的酒店入住率环境,而客房供不应求的局面在短期的未来不会改观,星展集团给予本地酒店业“加磅”的评级,其中城市发展酒店服务信托继续列为其首要推荐对象。根据星展对它作出的每股可派发收入估计,它的现价意味着08财年和09财年的股息率分别为5.9%和6.6%,因此星展给予它“买入”评级,目标价为2.90元。

城市发展酒店服务信托也受联昌国际研究青睐。联昌国际认为,本地接下来八年对酒店住宿的需求料会上升,政府已经设定到了2015年,来自游客的收入和到访人数将分别为300亿元和1700万名的目标。

作为本地最庞大的酒店业主以及唯一的酒店信托,信托将从酒店住宿的强劲需求中受惠,联昌国际因此给予它“表现优于大市”的评级,目标价为2.38元。

至于大中酒店,它不久前刚公布首季业绩,多家证券行都认为符合市场预期。星展集团研究认为,尽管它脱售坐落在澳大利亚柏斯和马国吉打州的两家酒店后,意味着失去了来自它们的营收贡献,本地和澳大利亚酒店业务却因两地客房供应紧张而表现不俗。

由于它共有65%的营业额以及55%的客房来自新加坡和澳大利亚,它接下来的业务表现料会保持稳定,尤其是新加坡市场正在享有强劲的游客需求。星展给予它“买入”评级,并把目标价定为1.34元。

华侨银行投资研究也指出大中酒店的季度业绩符合其预测,并料会从本地和澳大利亚两地酒店的较高客房收费中受惠。华侨银行看好它的本地酒店表现,把它全年的净利预测从2690万元提高到2930万元,因此维持对它的“买入”评级,并把合理价值估计定为1.25元。


除了城市发展酒店服务信托和大中酒店外,星展集团研究也建议吸购业务多元化的安国控股(Amara Holdings)及文雅酒店(Hotel Plaza)的控制股东华业集团(UOL Group),指它们在本地拥有显著的酒店业务,也将从本地旺盛的酒店服务市场中受益,因此把它们的目标价分别定为82分和5.22元。

Source